IRAN VS SAUDI ARABIA: WHO WOULD WIN?

This week, Saudi Arabian officials told the White House that Iran was preparing to strike the kingdom, prompting fears that the ongoing proxy war in Syria and Yemen would spill onto fresh soil.

Which got people asking: Who would win in a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

There’s no question it would be a devastating battle between the well-equipped nations, but there’s little doubt amongst experts about who’d come out on top.

Saudi Arabia would beat Iran if war broke out.

The main reason for that is American support. The USA has already announced that it would defend Saudi Arabia and other Middle East allies to its full abilities.

We wouldn’t have much of a choice, to be honest. We rely on their oil, and have a de facto deal in place to protect them in exactly this sort of scenario.

However, it does get a little complicated. For starters, American-Saudi relations have been somewhat strained in recent years, thanks to the killing of Jamal Kashoggi, a US citizen and journalist. He was dismembered at the Saudi Consulate in Turkey after heavily criticizing the Saudi Arabian government, leading to American condemnation and renewed sanctions against the kingdom. As well, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the war in Yemen has prompted accusations of human right’s abuses and war crimes. Many in Congress support a weapon’s ban for this reason, though no bills have been passed.

Another hiccup between the nations? In October, the Saudi-led Organization for Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC+) decided to halve its production, spiking energy prices in its allied neighbors, and angering the White House.

WHO ARE THE SAUDIS FIGHTING IN YEMEN?

Wait for it…

Wait for it…

The Iranians.

Yes, the recent escalation in rhetoric from Iran is largely fuelled by the Saudi’s presence in Yemen, where they are backing an internationally-recognized government, to the frustration of the Houthis rebels, who are backed by the Iranians.

Ah, don’t you just love the complicated loyalties of international politics?

So, why would this affect the odds of Saudi Arabia winning a war against Iran?

Well, it likely wouldn’t. The USA has turned a mostly blind-eye to the atrocities occurring in Yemen thus far, and there is little likelihood that that will change if Iran lashes out on Saudi soil.

However, there is growing discontent amongst some in Washington, who feel that our support for the kingdom is wearing thin, given their long-standing refusal to adhere to Western norms of human rights and freedoms.

If America was dragged into a war with Iran due to Saudi Arabia’s actions, many citizens would begin asking why, exactly, are we fighting on behalf of the country behind the 9/11 attacks? Public support would be difficult to maintain, especially if the war dragged on.

And if America reduced their support of Saudi Arabia, Iran could easily gain the upper hand in a conflict.

After all, they have been increasing their nuclear capacities.

BUT THE WAR IN YEMEN HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR YEARS, WHY IS IRAN LASHING OUT NOW?

The war in Yemen isn’t the only reason Iran and Saudi Arabia are enemies. Discontent between the two nations goes back decades and stems from several factors, including differing interpretations of Islam, and a shared aspiration for leadership of the Islamic world. 

As well, both Iran and Saudi Arabia are major energy exporters who’ve long clashed over policy. Iran, suffering under US sanctions, is unable to monetize their supply as much as they’d like due to OPEC+ marketplace controls. In 2019, the two allied nations blamed Iran for hitting oil reserves in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia, doubling gas prices. 

And, the Syrian Civil War has complicated the situation. While Iran supported the Syrian government, Saudi Arabia provided aid to rebel groups. 

But it’s largely the September killing of Mahsa Amina, a 22-year-old Iranian woman who had been detained by Iran’s notorious morality police for not wearing her hijab properly, that has renewed tensions between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran in recent weeks, as protests in the nation continue. 

Numbers vary, but so far, according to Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a monitoring organization in the region, nearly 300 have been killed. It’s the most widespread rebellion to the country’s extreme religious leadership since the 1979 revolution, and it’s left officials scrambling for an outside faction to blame.

Enter America and social media. 

They have a point – protesters in Iran have undoubtedly been spurred on by Western ideals and support – but there is no evidence of an organized insurrection influenced by the American government. Rather, it’s a patchwork of individuals and loosely-affiliated groups striking back against the Supreme Leader and his heavy-handed enforcement of religious law.

Still, that didn’t stop Iranian officials from accusing the US of being a “Great Satan” in the world, responsible for inciting “chaos [and] terror.”

They also cautioned Saudi Arabia from airing footage of the protests on their Farsi-language news channels. 

“This is our last warning, because you are interfering in our internal affairs through these media,” Major-General Hossein Salami said to the kingdom. “You are involved in this matter and know that you are vulnerable.”

In October, Biden placed additional sanctions on Iran for its crackdown on protesters, and for supplying drones to Russia for use in the invasion of Ukraine.

All these factors are heightening tensions between the USA, its allies, and Iran, leading to increased fears of an imminent attack.

WILL IRAN ATTACK SAUDI ARABIA?

On Wednesday, November 2nd, the White House was alerted to a credible threat of attack on the kingdom by Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Their sources claimed a hit could come “soon or within 48 hours.” However, no US embassies were closed, and as of Friday morning, no threat had materialized.

Only time will tell if sources were correct in their predictions.